AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE TOURISM INDUSTRY

People and businesses all around the world have been impacted by the unique coronavirus known as COVID-19, which has resulted in a worldwide economic catastrophe. COVID-19 is the first of its sort of humanitarian calamity. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the tourism industry in India, prompting a study on the effects of COVID-19 on the tourism sector in India.

In this regard, the tourism industry is not falling further and further behind. The pandemic has affected local communities by affecting regional growth and employment possibilities, as well as FEE income.

This study uses artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict international visitors to India and their FEE. In 2020, foreign travellers to India dropped significantly.

Also, we look at the impact of COVID-19 using four different scenarios. Each one takes into account both the loss and gain in FEE when there is and when there isn’t a lockdown.
Finally, the findings will help policymakers maximize FEE and make strategic and operational decisions.

Keywords: ANN model, COVID-19, forecasting, foreign exchange earnings, tourism demands.

THE EFFECTS OF COVID-19 ON TOURISMSECTOR IN INDIA:

        Before Covid-19 came, people thought that because they lived in a mobile world, their level of movement would stay the same as it had been. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the tourism sector in India, prompting a study on the effects of COVID-19 on the tourism industry in the country. The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) around the world is unthinkable, and this outbreak threatens the lives and ways of life of millions of people around the world. Because of this, most countries have put in place curfews as a protection to keep people from getting too close to each other in case the Covid-19 virus spreads.

    The tourism business has nearly stopped due to the lockout, which has shaken the economy. The grounding of aircraft, railways, and other modes of transportation inside and outside India has had a major impact on the hospitality industry. India’s economy relies heavily on tourism. Many foreigners visit India each year. Over the past decade, foreign visits have increased.

India is known for its warm people, diversified lifestyles, rich cultural heritage, and vast geographical diversity. Heritage sites, temples, beaches, yoga, Ayurveda, and natural health resorts, as well as religious and spiritual tourism, attract foreign travelers.

Due to the popularity of its religious sites, India’s industrialization and economic growth have led to more domestic tourism that focuses on sight-seeing and adventure sports. Because of free trade agreements (FTAs) and Covid-19, the Indian tourism business may lose money.

OBJECTIVES:

• The tourist industry, both in India and globally, appears to be ready to collapse, which would likely cause a stock market fall across all industries. Tourism in India and around the world is suffering the most due to travel bans.
• The only things that remained in one place were the hotels, airlines, and cruise operations. Because of this, there is going to be an impact on India’s GDP because the virus could not be stopped from spreading.
• Covid-19 warns that global public health is causing healthcare system instability and economic recession.
• This study examines how the Corona virus has affected tourism in India and beyond.

LITRATURE REVIEW:

Tourism in India and around the world appears to be on the brink of a major disaster, which is leading the stock market to fall across all sectors. Tourism in India and around the world is suffering the most due to travel bans. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the tourism sector in India, prompting a study on the effects of COVID-19 on the tourism industry in the country.

The virus’s spread and its effects on healthcare and operations are affecting India’s GDP. This study examines how coronavirus has affected tourism in India and worldwide. The virus spread to all continents via air travel and continues to spread rapidly.

To stop the epidemic, several countries have closed their borders and canceled all battles and events, including pilgrimages, historic site visits, and other tourist draws. Everyone’s traveling slower. The World Travel and tourist Council predicts 75 million tourist jobs and $2.1 trillion lost by 2020.

India reported the first COVID-19 case on January 30, 2020. After the first occurrence, the authorities started checking travellers at all airports. India has initiated a lockdown on March 25, 2020, to tackle COVID-19. Air travel would cease.

As of July 31, 2020, the WHO reported 1.64 million COVID19 cases in India and 35,75,000 deaths. By 2020, airlines, hotels, and restaurants will shrink by 50%. This will cost many jobs and money. This problem makes it hard for the tourism industry to retain its status quo. This study effort used secondary research, therefore all stages were followed.

CONCLUSION:        

COVID-19 has impacted the tourism industry and will likely continue to do so. In March 2020, 68% fewer foreign tourists visited India than in February.
It has a significant influence on the FEE, which is a sort of money that is created from tourism. When it comes to making strategic and operational decisions, having an appropriate forecasting model might be helpful.

Thus, the ANN model was used to anticipate foreign tourist numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of visitors and exchange rates were used to estimate the FEE. Four scenarios were created to examine the impact of COVID-19 based on FEE projections.

This work introduces three new objects and some new ideas. First, an innovative technique illustrates how COVID-19 and tourism interact. Finally, tourism stakeholders have a creative way to assist the sector recover. This decision aids sector recovery.

Effect on tourism industry:

The findings of this paper will help stakeholders and policymakers plan based on expected value, both from a strategic and an operational point of view. The study on effects of covid-19 on tourism sector of India found that the pandemic has cut down on the number of foreign visitors, which has lowered FEE. Instead of spending money on new resources, lawmakers and other interested parties may look for ways to improve the ones they already have.

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